The Fund rose 5.1% in October 2025 which gives a return of 79.3% (net of fees and costs) since launch on 12th July 2017. This compares with a return of 60.2% from the Investment Association (IA) Flexible Sector which places it in the 1st quartile since launch. Against all 650 funds in the four IA Mixed Asset Sectors (Flexible Sector plus the 0-35% Shares, 0-60% Shares & 40-85% Shares Sectors), the Fund is ranked in the first quartile over 1, 3 and 5 years.

In October World Equities rose 4.5% in GBP terms. Markets are being driven by continued strong corporate earnings especially in the US, strong liquidity and the prospect of further interest rate cuts. The excitement of AI and the accompanying growth in capex including energy infrastructure requirements are a strong drug, but this is becoming consensus which makes it risky. For the time being, markets are choosing to ignore the expensive valuations for Equity markets generally in the hope that the current exuberance and earnings growth will continue. In October the UK Equity market lagged slightly with a rise of 3.7%.

Technology was the stand-out sector in October with a return of 9.1% in GBP terms. The next best performing sectors were Healthcare (5.6%) and Utilities (5.5%). Real Estate and Materials both gave a modest negative return.

Gilts and US Treasuries both delivered modest positive returns in October. Gold rose nearly 4% in USD terms (6% in GBP terms) despite an 8% fall from a peak surge during the month.

The allocation to Equities has fallen again, despite the continued strength, which is entirely because of the stretched valuations and the risks that come with this. It does not seem sensible to be fully invested in Equities at this stage (at least, that is how we tell our model to behave, and we like the discipline of then being forced to follow it).

We sold almost all the Gold position (down from 16% to below 4%) and the entire 8% Commodity basket position on Tuesday 21st October, the day after the peak surge in Gold. This spike up in Gold took it to the second most overbought level in 45 years, at which our model says enough is enough. Gold is still an extremely attractive asset because it will be the major beneficiary of the monetary debasement that governments and central banks are so recklessly pursuing through their irresponsible build up of debt. However, that is a medium term problem and, for the time being, it is better to let Gold pause for breath until the next phase.

With a reduced Equity allocation and a significant (hopefully only temporary) reduction in Gold, it begs the question of where to redeploy the assets. The Fund has been building up a position in US Treasuries which is now 39% of the Fund. US Treasuries are more attractive than Gilts due to UK political risks, and anyway (or possibly for that reason) have better price momentum. At least US Treasuries now have a positive real yield, unlike the negative real yield in the great inflation of 2020-2022, so they are almost back to normal.